If you are a frequent listener or subscriber to the podcast, you'll know I often ask guests, "what's next?" to wrap the episode. Well, in this interview with Sarah Owen, Global Future Studies Directory, SOON Future Studies, "what's next?" IS the episode
Welcome to the The Voice of Retail , I’m your host Michael LeBlanc, and this podcast is brought to you in conjunction with Retail Council of Canada
If you are a frequent listener or subscriber to the podcast, you'll know I often ask guests, "what's next?" to wrap the episode.
Well, in this interview with Sarah Owen, Global Futures Directory, SOON Future Studies, "what's next?" IS the episode
After reaching Sarah in her new home base in one of my favourite global cities, Lisbon, we talk about the tradecraft of predicting future trends, dive into Sarah's new report, the SOON Future Forecast. We unpack critical observations and trends that happened, or will happen, both pre and post COVID pandemic and provide a glimpse into the future that retailers need to hear!
You can view the immersive SOON Future Forecast by heading to https://soonfutures.com/.
Thanks for tuning into today’s episode of The Voice of Retail. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast so you don’t miss out on the latest episodes, industry news, and insights. If you enjoyed this episode please consider leaving a rating and review, as it really helps us grow so that we can continue getting amazing guests on the show.
I’m your host Michael LeBlanc, President of M.E. LeBlanc & Company, and if you’re looking for more content, or want to chat follow me on LinkedIn, or visit my website meleblanc.co!
Sarah Owen, Global Futures Director
Sarah is a trend forecaster, futurist and social scientist with a background in studying youth culture and social media.
With 13 years of experience in future trends, consumer research and communication strategy, she specialises in guiding organisations through strategic foresight, scenario planning and trend analysis.
Sarah has previously worked in the USA, Australia and Europe analysing emerging trends and behavioural shifts for WGSN, consulting with Fortune 500 brands such as Intel, Chanel, and L'Oréal, and writing for the likes of Kinfolk, The New York Times, WARC and i-D magazine. As an academic, she has studied Strategic Foresight at the University of Houston and holds a master’s degree in Sociology from ISCTE in Portugal.
She has presented at global events including Cannes Lions, Pause Fest, FUTR Summit and World Retail Congress, and has been quoted as an expert in The Financial Times, CNN, Vogue, Bloomberg and The Guardian.
When she’s not searching for signals, she practices Kundalini yoga and volunteers at the Fungi Foundation as their Communications Director.
Michael LeBlanc is the Founder & President of M.E. LeBlanc & Company Inc and a Senior Advisor to Retail Council of Canada as part of his advisory and consulting practice. He brings 25+ years of brand/retail/marketing & eCommerce leadership experience, and has been on the front lines of retail industry change for his entire career. Michael is the producer and host of a network of leading podcasts including Canada’s top retail industry podcast, The Voice of Retail, plus Global E-Commerce Tech Talks and The Food Professor with Dr. Sylvain Charlebois and the all new Conversations with CommerceNext podcast.
Last but not least, check out my new YouTube cooking show, Last Request Barbecue!
You can learn more about Michael here or on LinkedIn.
Michael LeBlanc is the Founder & President of M.E. LeBlanc & Company Inc and a Senior Advisor to Retail Council of Canada as part of his advisory and consulting practice. He brings 25+ years of brand/retail/marketing & eCommerce leadership experience, and has been on the front lines of retail industry change for his entire career. Michael is the producer and host of a network of leading podcasts including Canada’s top retail industry podcast, The Voice of Retail, plus Global E-Commerce Tech Talks and The Food Professor with Dr. Sylvain Charlebois and the all new Conversations with CommerceNext podcast.
Last but not least, check out my new YouTube cooking show, Last Request Barbecue!
You can learn more about Michael here or on LinkedIn.
Michael LeBlanc 00:04
Welcome to The Voice of Retail. I'm your host Mike LeBlanc, and this podcast is brought to you in conjunction with Retail Council of Canada.
If you're a frequent listener, subscriber to the podcast, you'll know how often I ask guests "what's next?", to wrap the episode. Well, in this interview with Sarah Owen, Global Futures Director, SOON Future Studies, "what's next?", is the episode.
Michael LeBlanc 00:23
After reaching Sarah in her new home base, and one of my favorite global cities, Lisbon, we talk about the tradecraft of predicting future trends, dive into Sarah's new report, the SOON Future Forecast, we unpack critical observations and trends that happened, or will happen, both pre- and post-COVID pandemic, and provide a glimpse into the future that retailers need to hear.
Sarah Owen 00:45
I think we've all been very focused, and rightly so, on the e-commerce revolution this year. But in 2024, there will be quite a strong resurgence to physical retail. And in terms of what that looks like, it's when we think, we have to think about it in its embeddedness to other trends and drivers of change. So, one of that, frankly, is off the back of what the future city looks like.
Michael LeBlanc 01:13
Let's listen in now. Sarah, welcome to The Voice of Retail podcast. How are you doing?
Sarah Owen 01:17
Hi, Michael. Great to be here, thanks for having me. I'm doing well.
Michael LeBlanc 01:20
Well, fantastic. You're, you're currently in one of my favorite countries in the whole wide world, Portugal, so that in, congratulations. I guess I should say Lisbon, or Lesbos, as they would know, is such a wonderful city.
Sarah Owen 01:32
Yeah, it was a nice transition after a decade in New York City; leaving the rat race just to have a bit more, you know, lifestyle—
Michael LeBlanc 01:40
Yeah.
Sarah Owen 01:40
Beach, good weather, things like that.
Michael LeBlanc 01:42
Well, that's a heck of a transition from, from NYC to Lisbon. That's amazing. Been there many times myself. So, I'm envious right off the top. Well, listen, let's jump right in. Tell us about yourself, who you are, your personal/professional journey, and what you do at SOON.
Sarah Owen 01:58
Sure, I'll start high level. So, for now, I'm the Global Futures Director of a company called SOON Future Studies, and we are a company that is set up to track future trends, three to five years in advance. We still do real time to, kind of, two years out. There was a sweet spot for companies, retailers, institutions, policymakers that are looking for what the future looks like a little bit further out of their, kind of, current KPIs or roadmap. So, we created a methodology to, kind of, look a bit further ahead. So, that's what I'm currently doing at SOON. And my background is a mix of trend forecasting, futurism and sociology.
Michael LeBlanc 02:41
Wow, so, so did you always grow up thinking of the future? Or is this, this intersection of a bunch of different curiosities or passions have you, in your life?
Sarah Owen 02:51
Yeah, that's a good question. I wouldn't say I even knew what it was when I was younger. But naturally, I think that curiosity and inquisitiveness was always there. And I, actually, when I went back to Australia a couple of years ago, went through my old stuff and found a notebook that I had when I was 12, or 13, where I was scrapbooking together all these visuals of New York City.
Sarah Owen 03:14
So, I thought that was quite funny, I forgot about that. That, the fact that this young teenage girl in outback Australia, was already manifesting before she knew what it was. So, there was something to the imagining the future in, in a certain realm, even if it didn't have a methodology behind it at that stage.
Michael LeBlanc 03:32
And who knew you could make a career out of, out of doing, thinking about the future and prognosticating, right, right.
Sarah Owen 03:40
And I mean, I, I first learned about official trend forecasting when I was in college. And I remember studying my first year, I was 17, or 18, in Queensland at the University of Technology, and we had access to a subscription platform called WGSN. And so, as, you know, a young student, having a deep dive into a subscription service like that, that generally costs you know, upwards of quite a few $1,000—
Michael LeBlanc 04:04
Yeah.
Sarah Owen 04:05
Was really a privilege into a world of amazing insights and futures, thinking that you didn't really understand had such relevance at that time. So, I, kind of, got my first taste tester of what trends, and what trends are, and not only the fact that they exist, but there's a team of amazing creative people behind the scenes that are really driving every industry that we touch and engage with.
Michael LeBlanc 04:29
Well, tell me a bit more about SOON, or is it SOON or SOON Futures? What's the proper name?
Sarah Owen 04:34
We go by, we go by SOON Future Studies, but a lot of people shorten it to SOON.
Michael LeBlanc 04:38
Well, tell me about the organization, scope, and scale, how many people work there, you're, you're currently in, in Portugal, you just came from New York City. Is it a global firm, tell me, just tell me, tell us all about that.
Sarah Owen 04:49
Yeah, we're headquartered in Melbourne, Australia, actually, but we're a global team. So, we're about six of us on board full-time, and then we have a network of what we call our Futures Advisors. So, they're specific, you know, experts, whether it's in cryptocurrency, or anthropology, or sustainability around the world, in emerging markets, and also kind of top-tier cities that are feeding in signals and insights to us on a daily. So, we can't do our research, especially during COVID, without that, kind of, global and local intel. And so, that network is, kind of, some of the secret sauce to a certain degree, as well.
Michael LeBlanc 05:27
Well, it's almost a future based organization, when you describe it. I mean, you've got a core group of people. But then you've got many distributed thought leaders around the world who feed in points of presence information. That's a really interesting model, did it, did it start that way, or did it evolve to that?
Sarah Owen 05:43
It really came after me realizing we didn't, at my previous roles and my previous experience, in the trend forecasting space, not feeling like that network was distributed or organized in a way that was easy to access information quickly, like there was no structure to it. And so, it was really important for me, when building SOON, that we created this network that felt like a mini organism, that could evolve and grow and, and operate.
Sarah Owen 06:14
And right now, we're looking at, how do we transition something like a Web 1.0, Web 2.0 community network into Web 3? And what does that look like in, in form of the decentralized world web? So, can we create a DOA, a decentralized autonomous organization, with our Futures Advisors, and, and really create, you know, governance and sovereignty, and transparency, and ownership around some of this knowledge sharing, as well. So, that's kind of the, the moonshot goal for next year, is looking how we transition into that realm, as well.
Michael LeBlanc 06:49
And just to stick on that thread for a bit, how do you find these people? Do they find you? And, you know, do you, do you track them in media and other ventures, or social media, or online? Like how do you, how's people, is it a hands up strategy, or you tap people on the shoulder? How do you, how do you go about it?
Sarah Owen 07:05
Yeah, there's no necessarily, necessary methodology to how we find people. I would say that Futures Advisors are people that we, kind of, vet and know that they're a thought leader in the space, that's really important to know that that level of expertise is there. So, they come through, you know, like you, for example, we might go to a specific conference and see a speaker and think, oh, they would be really great to work on a certain project.
Sarah Owen 07:31
Or we might be scrolling through a TikTok and find a young, Gen Z guy that has really interesting ideas around foraging fungi in, in the forest. You know, so there's really no scope and scale to who can be qualified as an expert, because at the end of the day, human insights are innately that, they’re human, and we all are. So, there's no, it's very democratic in that sense, but Futures Advisors are the people feeding in insights and signals to us, but we also have, what we call, the SOON Circle.
Sarah Owen 08:01
And the SOON Circle are people, publications, academic journals, conferences, networks, collectives, any, any kind of medium of format, that we map on the circle to work out who is on the fringe and who we need to track and monitor. So, they'll be, you know, up and coming conferences, like IAM Weekend in Barcelona, that really talks about the new internet and what that looks like. Or there could be, you know, a new journal or academic article coming from a publication within the, you know, psychology realm. So, we—
Michael LeBlanc 08:35
Right.
Sarah Owen 08:35
Map these references on our SOON Circle, because to study and track the future, you have to understand the signals of change, and today. And by doing that, you really have to only look at the fringe, to see what kind of things are transforming societies, subcultures, and sectors, essentially.
Michael LeBlanc 08:53
Right, I guess, I guess it's hard to define a zeitgeist, but you know, one when you see one, so to speak.
Sarah Owen 08:57
Yeah, it's like defining culture, or charisma, or I was once on this documentary, where they wanted me to find like, what cool was. And I was like, cool is such a hard thing to define. Because a lot of my previous—
Michael LeBlanc 09:10
Yeah.
Sarah Owen 09:11
Job required me to study millennials and Gen Z aesthetically, and kind of, deconstruct their, their consumption choices. And so, you would start to really pick up this pattern recognition of what made someone really cool, and stylistic, and would want to take their photo and document that and integrate it. And yeah, they asked me, okay, so how do you know who's cool, and what is cool? Like, this is a very existential question.
Michael LeBlanc 09:34
Is it, is it now in the modern world, is it, is it Instagram followers or their actual, like before—
Sarah Owen 09:39
No.
Michael LeBlanc 09:39
I think, no eh, because I think ten years ago, finding these people and then having some kind of signal that they were influential in some way, shape or form was a bit more difficult, wasn't it? Like—
Sarah Owen 09:50
Yeah.
Michael LeBlanc 09:50
Say listen, you got a 1000 million people following an Instagram, you must be doing something right, is, but you don't think that you're—
Sarah Owen 09:59
I mean, there was, there was an era of that, absolutely. I mean, I think, what I mean, Tumblr really set up this idea of aesthetic culture and fandom and, and creating visual feeds. But when it migrated to Instagram, it actually became more about social signaling, like how do I—
Michael LeBlanc 10:17
Right.
Sarah Owen 10:17
Share my status or—
Michael LeBlanc 10:18
Or raise my status, right?
Sarah Owen 10:20
Yeah, it became about these metrics, like followers, likes and engagement. But that, kind of, evolved and also died out fairly quickly toward, to where, at the moment, those metrics are actually losing traction, even with the changes Instagram makes in terms of hiding likes.
Sarah Owen 10:39
Also, coming off the back of the mental health crisis and Gen Z, you know, posting a photo, only to realize that it might get five likes, feeling really bad about themselves and deleting it. So that, kind of, there's a twofold reason to why likes and followers don't really matter as much. But I think it's more about the virality of the message that resonates more. And that's why TikTok is really interesting to, kind of, study as a platform over Instagram.
Michael LeBlanc 11:05
Tell me, tell me more about that. So, I love watching TikTok just, both professionally, and, and personally. I think that their, their algorithms are pretty brilliant. But, but I know a lot of retailers I talk to are just trying to figure it out. Why do you like TikTok so much?
Sarah Owen 11:24
I wouldn't say I like TikTok so much. Because I think personally, I'm also a bit cautious of the algorithm, for the fact that it creates, you know, filter bubbles that sometimes keep us in our—
Michael LeBlanc 11:34
Echo chamber kind of stuff, yeah.
Sarah Owen 11:35
Echo chambers, exactly. And that I think, when you're young, and you don't have the outlook, to cross check biases and things like that, it can be really damaging to someone that's in those formative years and building identity and things like that. But that aside, I think TikTok is fascinating, because it allows someone to spread their message at a really fast pace if it resonates quickly. Whereas on Instagram, you can't get that sort of reach until you build up that following.
Sarah Owen 12:05
So firstly, by its nature, it democratizes, not just fandom of stardom, because it's not about that. But the message, someone can have a really compelling TikTok or, you know, video composition, whether it's just about an aesthetic trend, or whether it's about, like I was saying foraging fungi in the forest, and it can share and be a powerful vehicle for not just entertainment, because a lot of people use it for that. But it's more this interest in education.
Sarah Owen 12:32
And I would say that education is becoming a new social signaling tool, that people want to acquire all of this information, knowledge so they can then regurgitate that to signal how informed they are. So, there's definitely a big educational component of TikTok that Instagram just doesn't have or cultivate, even now.
Michael LeBlanc 12:51
Right, interesting. Well, let's talk about the tradecraft for forecasting. I mean, I came to know forecasting in the, in the OG, the Faith Popcorn era, if you remember—
Sarah Owen 13:00
Yes.
Michael LeBlanc 13:00
Faith Popcorn as a, as a forecaster. And of course, the COVID-era has taught us many things, one of which is forecasting, the future can be notoriously tricky. Talk about the, you know, you've already got into, basically, some of the tradecraft, but how do you, how do you understand together, what is a trend, what is the future, and what is just a, an accommodation, or an adaptation to an unusual time. I mean, you must be, you must be thinking about that during these past 18 months. And its impact on, on the future and what is and isn't important when you think of the future. So, walk me a bit through that, that tradecraft element.
Sarah Owen 13:38
Yeah, so there's two ways you can really approach Futures work. The first way is if you follow a methodology called a Futures Funnel, or a Futures Cone.And the idea is that you look at a top-down approach. So, what are the mega-trends, or the macro-trends, that are essentially macro-environmental drivers of change that are impacting our lives. But it's such a high level that, how do I say this, you can't really extract tangible trends from them straight away.
Michael LeBlanc 14:06
Right.
Sarah Owen 14:07
So, take, for example, one of our drivers of change for the next decade is weakening global institutions. So, you know, we know trust in institutions is waning, and coming off the back of living in a post-trust society, what we see is that, that at a high level, is yes, sounds very governmental and institutional. But this is actually, if you start to map that macro-trend down to micro-trends, you see that is potentially why something like the blockchain and cryptocurrency has so much resonance in this era.
Sarah Owen 14:42
Because the blockchain again democratizes access to governance ownership, it allows for financial sovereignty, it allows for traceability and trust. So again, these, these two are interconnected, even though one is a macro, mega-trend and one is more of a micro-trend.
Michael LeBlanc 15:00
Interesting.
Sarah Owen 15:00
So, our process always takes the top-down approach, but we also go bottom-up. So, it's really important to be tracking, like I was saying, that fringe. What is happening in culture and society that is on the fringe, that can't necessarily be quantified easily, is sometimes very anecdotal, is sometimes a signal of change that doesn't really make sense without context.
Sarah Owen 15:21
But we use a databank where we tag a lot of these signals with a different taxonomy system. So, we can start to contextualize, what does emerging attitudes in China related to sustainability through the eyes of Gen Z look like? So, we can get really granular once we start to collect all this data. And what we like to do is then map it to our mega-trends.
Sarah Owen 15:44
So, we see if it fits into things like demographic polarization, or growing wealth inequality, the mental health crisis, you know, knowledge society. There's always these set of mega-trends that will define the next three to sometimes thirty, sometimes fifty years. So, these mega-trends don't really change too much, they are kind of the driving forces that change the world. But at the same time, you can't just look from the top-down, you have to look at the fringes to see what's bubbling up.
Michael LeBlanc 16:13
Alright, well, let's get into the Future Forecast 2024. Let's talk about this, this report. And, you know, I'm scanning through and have scanned through the website, I see lots of interesting things. What made, some made me laugh, the IRL anxiety and real-life anxiety. I love the AI art because you've got a picture of Rembrandt's ‘The Night Watch’, which is one of my favorite paintings. This just, just so, is a ton of things in here that are so interesting. But hit the highlights for us, what these, these, kind of, key categories are and what's in the report.
Sarah Owen 16:44
So, essentially what we did when we mapped out Future Forecasts for 2024, is we started to scenario plan a world really post-COVID. So, I know we're emerging out of that stage now. But there's still some, kind of, wriggling human behavior, that's not quite set in stone. So, what we looked at was a few different pillars, the future of wellness, which we called Life Wellbeing.
Sarah Owen 17:07
We looked at the future of the metaverse, we looked at the future of inclusivity and diversity and what that looks like. We studied the future of work, the future of travel, the future of retail, and then a trend called the post-growth paradigm, which essentially you can, kind of, coin that as the future of consumption. So, it's a really big report that you can see covers a lot of ground.
Michael LeBlanc 17:29
Yeah.
Sarah Owen 17:30
But the findings are very much analyzed through the lens of Gen Z and millennials, so, so young people and how they'll behave, shop, game, eat in the future.
Michael LeBlanc 17:41
Well, let's, let's tap into a couple, let's go, let's go down deep into a couple of them. First of all, this, this meta-universe that is the new, the new tagline I've been hearing quite a bit of. So, you know, my first version of a meta-universe was, was old school, kind of, you know, these places where people would gather with cheesy looking emoticons, but it's so much more. So, talk about the meta-universe and how it's impacting trends and society.
Sarah Owen 18:09
The metaverse is really interesting, because I think it's, kind of, the topic du jour at the moment. But it really defies definition because it doesn't exactly exist yet. And when I say that it doesn't exist, it means that is, if you compare it to, if it has a comparison, think of the internet before it was fully built, you know, Internet 1.0.
Michael LeBlanc 18:30
Almost a tautology, the metaverse doesn't really exist, so it's hard to talk about it.
Sarah Owen 18:34
Yes.
Michael LeBlanc 18:34
But it doesn't exist, but it doesn't exist. It's hard to get, it's like—
Sarah Owen 18:39
People want to understand it, but there's nothing to point towards as an exact reference. So, I think this is where we have to know that we're in a test and learn phase, and where the industry is growing, and innovating, and iterating all at once. So, think about it as in like building a plane as it's taking off, that's the metaverse.
Michael LeBlanc 18:57
It reminds, it reminds me a little bit, some of it reminds you of that, was trying to think of it earlier in the conversation, Second Life, do you remember Second Life?
Sarah Owen 19:03
Yes, yes, yes, yes.
Michael LeBlanc 19:04
Old school. I remember I built a store with a partner in Second Life. Everybody's that's it, nobody's going to shop in a shopping mall anymore, they're going to wander through here. And I'm like, yeah, I don't think so, but okay. You know, that was kind of—
Sarah Owen 19:17
Early iteration for sure. No, but the metaverse is, is, is a third space, a digital realm, that you can think of as being its own digital economy. We will work there, we will play there, we will learn there. It's hard to say that we'll do other sensory things like eat or smell. But then you see technologies like the electronic nose innovation that's coming through, this idea that you can use electricity to trigger smell.
Sarah Owen 19:43
And you wonder like, can I smell the new fragrance by my favorite brand? Or can I smell this new menu item from a restaurant I love in the metaverse, in the future. So, again, these things are bubbling up, but don't exist yet. So, this new digital realm will have its own currencies, again, driven by the blockchain and specific cryptocurrencies that operate throughout that.
Sarah Owen 20:06
And the world will become more seamless to where we'll have one avatar, one identity, one wallet, and be able to kind of move between these realms seamlessly. With the consent of continuity, so, there will always be this world that evolves, it doesn't stop and start when you exit. It will live and breathe, as you, kind of, go about the rest of your physical life. But when you revisit it, it will kind of pick up from real time. So, that's, kind of, I think, another step change people aren't used to. This idea that, yeah you can play a video game and when you stop or pause it, it pauses. But the metaverse doesn't have a pause button because it is a real, real realm.
Michael LeBlanc 20:46
It does have increasingly regulators and actors, big picture actors. I mean, you think of nation states who are clamping down on cryptocurrency, some would say rightly so, as it's become, in some ways, the currency of crime. So, how do you, how do you account for those kind of, I don't even want to call them exogenous shocks, but they are realities that there's governments and other stakeholders that, that can, kind of, put a broomstick in the bicycle wheel spoke of a forecast or a trend, yeah.
Sarah Owen 21:15
Yeah, and I think legislation is a bit behind in terms of keeping up. This, the rate of acceleration of change in this space is moving so quickly that, you know, even only this year, questions around I think the taxing of Bitcoin as income was, you know, something they had to address. So, it's like, they're in a place of reaction, rather than being proactive about setting up the regulation, like I said, because it doesn't exist, it's really hard to, kind of, control and monitor.
Sarah Owen 21:44
But for most of the backlash, there's no stopping this force of change that, I mean, there's some currencies, or certain countries, that are in exchanging crypto as the kind of, a key currency. You've got Miami, I think, that one is the first city to create the MiamiCoin. So, it is picking up on a more, kind of, social, physical level as well. But the upward trend of crypto isn't even around these alternative coins. It's really what the decentralized web and blockchain technology can do for people.
Sarah Owen 22:19
And, and like I said before, the fact that people crave transparency, traceability, ownerships, sovereignty, that, that technology and tool gives them that. So, whatever kind of backlash and legislation comes around that, we'll have to kind of watch this space a little bit. But this kind of trend will, will continue into the future, as a reaction to people building what they want, and having more peer power in a place where they don't trust huge institutions, whether with their money or political parties with their, with their vote.
Michael LeBlanc 22:31
So, in your framework, cryptocurrency is an outcome of a broader trend, in other words. It's, it's not a trend in and of itself, it's that outcome of that decentralization and all that kind of stuff.
Sarah Owen 23:03
Exactly, which is, it's interesting because if you look at the mechanics of the decentralized web or the blockchain, it's, it's interesting that it mirrors to a certain degree, mycelium networks, which are the most oldest organism, fungi that have existed on this planet for millions and millions of years.
Sarah Owen 23:26
So, the fact that blockchain technology is decentralized doesn't have a centralized source of power, like mycelium and fungi, it's, it's quite fascinating that we’re developing, and making, and creating these tools, but it's actually mirroring something so natural to us, and natural to this planet. It's almost like the secret, and the answer was always there, we're only now learning that this is something that we need.
Michael LeBlanc 23:51
Versus organic is what you're saying, there you go—
Sarah Owen 23:53
Yeah.
Michael LeBlanc 23:53
There's, there's, there's a blog post for you.
Sarah Owen 23:55
I love it.
Michael LeBlanc 23:56
All right, well, let's spend the balance of time we have left, let's talk about business. You know, my audience is made up, by and large, of business leaders, or students, or participants, and of course, even more so in the retail space. So, give us a few top notes about what you have to say about the future of retail.
Sarah Owen 24:14
Yeah, retail’s really interesting, because I think we've all been very focused, and rightly so on the e-commerce revolution this year. But in 2024, there will be quite a strong resurgence to physical retail. And in terms of what that looks like, it's when we think, we have to think about it in its embeddedness to other trends and drivers of change. So, one of that, frankly, is off the back of what the future city looks like.
Sarah Owen 24:44
And that's really important to take into consideration because it impacts retail hugely. So, with post-COVID change, and obviously the intersection of the climate agenda being top of mind for policymakers and urban developers. The city will turn into a 15-minute city. So, the idea that you live, work, shop, eat, play within 15 minutes of one location, will become a really central factor. And that's going to challenge retailers to develop or integrate into mixed-used retail destinations and spaces.
Sarah Owen 25:17
So, we're seeing that come to play. I think Paris is really leading the way in terms of what that looks like. And so, within the report, we're, kind of, calling out places like La Samaritaine, which was reopened in 2021, this year. And it mixes its department store, it's got a hotel in it, a co-working space, but also public housing. So, these retail residencies are a big part of what we're seeing for the future.
Sarah Owen 25:42
Even John Lewis is actually building its own residential retail hubs, as well, that people will be able to rent, furnish with their furniture too. Which is an interesting way of a retailer, kind of, integrating into the, these worlds. So again, this big resurgence to physical world. But what does that mean for shopping malls and shopping destinations, a bit more on the fringe of cities, it means that we're going to see really interesting use cases of bringing in some of those priorities for young people into those spaces.
Sarah Owen 26:13
So, a really great example I'll point you towards, is a company, an esports company called Belong Gaming Arenas. So, they announced in, in June that they're going to roll out 500 locations in malls and shopping centers across the US over the next five years. So, they're reclaiming that space that traditionally Gen Z used to go to the mall and hang out, but now what do they do, they're gaming. So, this esports company, who's kind of, taking back that real estate, and creating these esports arenas as a place for people to commune, and converge, and connect, and have that experience, and no doubt, there'll be retail, kind of, additions and add-ons to that. So, it's really about this resurgence of spaces, in alignment with what young people value and need, in the new ways that we'll live and operate in cities.
Michael LeBlanc 27:02
And I guess, you know, it's interesting, because we talk about one thing, driving another. What, what I've been thinking about a lot as one of these long-term impacts of the COVID-era, is the work from home movement, or work from anywhere movement. It's not like the technology didn't exist before. But it seems there's been a cultural shift, and that enables this 15-minute city idea, where many of us can now shop and live, without this long commute. It, it does say interesting things about downtown's and how to keep them vibrant. So, and of course, where retailers locate, and what they locate and how they locate. Pretty interesting stuff.
Sarah Owen 27:37
And the future of the office too because you think about it—
Michael LeBlanc 27:39
Yeah.
Sarah Owen 27:39
A lot of people are giving up that real estate, in that, those big leases they've had for their, their corporations. And there will be, it's funny because we, kind of, spoke about the death of co-working spaces a few years ago, only for COVID to really challenge that and re-ignite the need for those. Because people can work from home and will want to have that split, but they'll need physical places to connect with their colleagues.
Sarah Owen 28:06
So, there's some interesting initiatives coming out with retailers creating co-working spaces aside, I'm not sure—
Michael LeBlanc 28:12
STACK is doing that, yeah, STACKS WORKS.
Sarah Owen 28:13
STACKS WORKS, really great, great case study. Or even companies, actually a small initiative, but giving employees or paying, or picking up the check for when they have a meal with their colleague, you know, those kinds of initiatives to get people meeting again, they're going to need that physical place to do that.
Michael LeBlanc 28:31
Well, it's interesting, because the smart money is going in both directions, right? In your former hometown, New York City, Google just paid what, $2.1 or $2.4 billion for big physical space in Hudson Yards.
Sarah Owen 28:41
Yeah.
Michael LeBlanc 28:41
So, it's, it's interesting, it's going in a couple of directions. I'm not sure, I think big companies like that are hedging their bets in both directions. You know, who knows—
Sarah Owen 28:49
There's a business case for both too, right. Because you think about it, like all we do is touch flat, 2d surfaces all day and scrolling is becoming, kind of, a tiresome experience. So, I think there will still be that discovery stage online and on social, but there'll be a drive to, kind of, have that ease to physically pick it up. No one wants to bother with returns. Everyone's got return fatigue of that, that very un-seamless experience of what it is to return something. So, I think people still want some convenience and ease that comes with the physical element too.
Michael LeBlanc 29:22
Well, usually I end these podcasts by saying well, who knows the future? Well, I would say you guys got a pretty good grip on it. Great report. Tell us about where to get in touch with you and go find your report.
Sarah Owen 29:34
Yeah, you can find the report on soonfutures.com, otherwise our Instagram, @soonfutures, has a daily signals of change, if you just want some constant feed of inspiration going forward.
Michael LeBlanc 29:46
Well fantastic. Well, thanks for joining me on the, on The Voice of Retail. Great to talk about the future here in, here in the present. I wish you and the team much continued success and, and encourage everybody to go check out the report. It's really fun, it's really interesting, thought provoking. So, thanks again for joining me on The Voice of Retail.
Sarah Owen 30:03
Thanks so much for having me, Michael.
Michael LeBlanc 30:05
Thanks for tuning into today's episode of The Voice of Retail. Be sure and follow the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you enjoy podcasts, so you don't miss out on the latest episodes, industry news and insights. If you enjoyed this episode, please consider leaving a rating review, as it really helps us grow, so that we can continue to get amazing guests onto the show. I'm your host Michael LeBlanc, president of M.E LeBlanc & Company Inc. And if you're looking for more content, or want to chat, follow me on LinkedIn, or visit my website at meleblanc.co.
Until next time, stay safe. Have a great week.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
people, future, trends, retail, futures, interesting, world, metaverse, creating, bit, tradecraft, called, building, instagram, gen z, retailers, exist, signals, blockchain, cryptocurrency