In this illuminating episode, trusted The Voice of Retail regular Ira Kalish, Deloitte's Chief Global Economist and upcoming STORE2025 opening keynote speaker, returns to analyze the unprecedented shift in US trade policy. With tariffs reaching levels not seen since 1903, Kalish challenges reshoring narratives, explains why "fortress trading blocs" are unlikely, and predicts potential empty store shelves. His timely analysis provides a preview of the essential economic insights he'll deliver to Canadian retailers on June 3rd in Toronto.
In this timely episode of The Voice of Retail, host Michael LeBlanc welcomes back frequent guest and audience favorite Ira Kalish, Chief Global and US Economist for Deloitte, who is set to deliver the opening keynote address at Retail Council of Canada's STORE2025 conference on June 3rd. This conversation offers listeners a valuable preview of the critical economic insights Canadian retailers can expect from his highly anticipated keynote.
As LeBlanc notes in the introduction, "I'm very excited that you're going to be here in person," highlighting the significance of Kalish's upcoming role in kicking off RCC's flagship event during this period of economic uncertainty. The episode serves as an essential primer for conference attendees and provides crucial analysis for all retail professionals navigating today's complex trade environment.
Drawing on his deep economic expertise, Kalish reveals that average US tariff rates have skyrocketed to approximately 27% - levels not seen since 1903. This represents a dramatic increase from the previous 3-3.5% rates and has triggered significant financial market volatility, supply chain disruptions, and growing concerns about economic downturns - all topics he'll address more extensively in his STORE2025 presentation.
The conversation tackles three major justifications for the new tariff approach: shifting from taxes to tariffs for revenue generation, rebalancing global trade priorities, and re-shoring manufacturing. Kalish systematically challenges these rationales, providing a preview of the economic framework he'll expand upon during his conference keynote.
Particularly concerning for retailers planning to attend STORE2025, Kalish highlights data showing container shipments from China to the US are down 45% year-over-year, as importers either find tariffs too prohibitive or wait for potential policy reversals. This disruption threatens empty store shelves and significantly higher consumer prices in the immediate future - urgent challenges that will undoubtedly be central to his opening address.
Continuing themes he'll develop further at the conference, the discussion also explores non-tariff barriers, currency manipulation accusations, and the possibility of regional "fortress" trading blocs. While Kalish doesn't foresee complete regionalization of trade, he notes that many countries are now working to reduce US trade dependence by liberalizing trade with each other.
On a more optimistic note, the conversation concludes by examining how this trade crisis might catalyze positive economic reforms in Canada - a topic that will resonate strongly with the Canadian retail executives gathering at STORE2025.
Listeners are encouraged to follow Kalish's weekly economic updates on Deloitte's thought leadership website at deloitte.com/insights, while also making plans to attend his must-see opening keynote at Retail Council of Canada's STORE2025 conference on June 1st, where he'll provide expanded insights on these rapidly evolving economic developments.