Recorded live from New York in the Narvar podcasting studio at the NRF Big Show, what really happened during Holiday 2025—and what does it mean for retail in 2026? I’m joined by Caila Schwartz, Director of Consumer Insights and Strategy at Salesforce. Drawing on data from 1.5 billion global shoppers, Caila explains why Canada outperformed the U.S., how Cyber Monday has become a hard psychological deadline, and why buy-online-pick-up-in-store surged in the final days before Christmas. We also cut through the AI hype to explain why agentic commerce is shifting from efficiency to customer experience.
Live from NRF, The Voice of Retail welcomes Caila Schwartz, Director of Consumer Insights and Strategy at Salesforce, for a data-driven conversation on what truly shaped Holiday 2025—and what retailers must prepare for next.
Salesforce sits at the center of global commerce, analyzing transactions from more than 1.5 billion consumers across digital and physical retail. That scale gives Caila a rare, real-time view into how shoppers actually behave, not just how they say they behave. In this episode, she shares clear, actionable insights into Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the evolving dynamics of the holiday shopping season.
One of the biggest surprises was Canada’s performance. Canadian e-commerce sales grew roughly 11 percent year over year, significantly outpacing the U.S. market. However, that growth was driven by value-seeking behaviour rather than higher prices. Canadian shoppers leaned heavily into promotions and buy-now-pay-later tools, while average selling prices declined—signaling ongoing cost sensitivity despite strong demand. Retailers responded by delivering deeper discounts, particularly late in the promotional cycle.
Caila explains how Cyber Monday has evolved from an e-commerce invention into a powerful psychological deadline. Salesforce data shows the final hours of Cyber Monday generate some of the highest shopping activity of the entire season. Even more telling, retailers extended aggressive promotions into the Tuesday after Cyber Monday, reflecting a more flexible, demand-responsive pricing strategy amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
The episode also explores the resurgence of buy-online-pick-up-in-store. In the final days before Christmas, more than a third of online orders were fulfilled through BOPIS, highlighting how tightly integrated digital and physical retail have become.
Finally, the conversation turns to artificial intelligence and agentic commerce. Caila outlines why 2025 was largely about AI-driven efficiency, while 2026 will be defined by AI-led customer experience. Retailers that launched branded shopper agents saw materially stronger growth, reinforcing the importance of “owning the conversation” rather than relying solely on third-party platforms.