In this episode, I’m in Istanbul talking with Emre Soyer, author of his new book, The Myth of Experience. Armed with a Ph.D. in behavioural science and founder of the SOYER Decision Advisory to help people and organizations make better decisions. In a wide-ranging and fascinating interview, Emre turns the conventional thinking of what we learn from experience on its head - it turns out, experience may not be the best teacher…
Welcome to The Voice of Retail, I’m your host Michael LeBlanc, and this podcast is brought to you in conjunction with Retail Council of Canada.
In this episode, I’m in Istanbul talking with Emre Soyer, author of his new book, The Myth of Experience. Armed with a Ph.D. in behavioural science and founder of the SOYER Decision Advisory to help people and organizations make better decisions. In a wide-ranging and fascinating interview, Emre turns the conventional thinking of what we learn from experience on its head - it turns out, experience may not be the best teacher…
You can learn more about Emre and the work he does on his website here.
You can pick up his book, The Myth of Experience, here or wherever amazing books are sold.
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I’m your host Michael LeBlanc, President of M.E. LeBlanc & Company, and if you’re looking for more content or want to chat, follow me on LinkedIn, or visit my website meleblanc.co!
Michael LeBlanc
Welcome to The Voice of Retail. I'm your host, Michael LeBlanc. This podcast is brought to you in conjunction with the Retail Council of Canada.
In this episode, I'm in Istanbul talking with Emre Soyer, author of the new book, The Myth of Experience. Armed with a Ph.D. in behavioral science and founder of the Soyer Decision Advisory to help people and organizations make better decisions. We have a wide ranging and fascinating interview. Emre turns the conventional thinking of what we think we learn from experience on his head. Turns out experience may not be the best teacher.
Everybody's obsessed about these lists of things successful people do before breakfast, before lunch. And that's kind of nice to motivate people, but many not so successful people who didn't make into the list, maybe are also doing those things in that those advice may not be causing the difference.
Also, these kinds of analysis tend to take success definition from outside, which is quite that practice because then even if you reach success, you may have certain tradeoffs that lead you there. And you may actually regret that, you may not like that. So, we should be defining our own success and failure and sampling both of them to try to go what causes the difference. And maybe even track that difference across time.
Michael LeBlanc
Let's listen in. Emre, welcome to The Voice of Retail podcast. How you doing this evening? This morning? Where you're in Turkey? So, I think it's in the evening? How are you? Regardless, how are you?
Emre Soyer
Thank you very much. Okay, this is in the late afternoon. How are you doing? Hope all as well,
Michael LeBlanc
I’m good. Yeah, just took the dog for a walk. It's started my day and closer to the end of yours. So, the wonders of technology, we get to be in the same place at the same time. I'm really looking forward to our conversation. I've had your book, The Myth of Experience, for a couple of weeks. And I've just been consuming the book. And I'm so excited to chat with you because you and I were talking off mic and I said, you know that, you know, we're a year into this COVID crisis. And you know that a lot of people right now are reflecting on lessons learned. And, you know, this is where I think your book, and your work is so intriguing to me is, are we going to learn the right lessons?
But Alright, I've jumped ahead, let's take a step back. Tell us about yourself and your professional background and what you do for a living.
Emre Soyer
I'm delighted to be here. Thanks for having me. And I'm a behavioral scientist, I think about decisions a lot. I'm a consultant to companies and managers. And we're together with a team, we provide talks, workshops, projects on what we call strategic and creative decision making. The general aim is to improve the way people make decisions, they approach decisions, and hopefully also the outcomes, learning the right lessons from experience. Using intuition in an intelligent way, cooperating effectively and creating solutions. Seeing problems exactly when they were doing when they need to. So that's what I do for a living.
Michael LeBlanc
Let me ask you this question. And, you know, you've got a Ph.D. You've been clearly in depth studying this. Did you, is this, did you find your way into understanding behaviors? Is it, is it a path you chose is this a path that was kind of open to you? Is it something, in other words, when you were, you know, when you're a young fella, were you like, why did you make that decision? I'm gonna go get a Ph.D. and figure that out. Like, why, how did you find out? How did you get to where you are? And tell me a bit about that.
Emre Soyer
That's an excellent question for a guest. I mean, I get to think about what the hell happened? And that's a great, great question. So, I studied and I worked actually, as an Economist in economics and statistician, as well. I trained as a statistician in statistics, a lot, quite a lot. And then I started asking, why am I doing all of this? Why have I studied this? And people constantly told me like Emre, you're gonna make better decisions. You're gonna know how to make decisions better. I mean, decision making is really crucial to what we do here. It's a building block you know, you can understand that better.
It really didn't feel like it's, it didn't feel like I was making better decisions. I was understanding decisions better. So, I started to use all the tools that I've been training on, and I've been using for the decision making, and I started doing tests. Like, can we use economics and certain statistical tools that we use every day to actually make better decisions? And that turned out to be my Ph.D. thesis, quite serendipitously. Yeah, it turns out it is not easily transferable. You need to make some changes. You need to understand how to present. How to analyze certain things in a way so that they can become decision friendly. Otherwise, the way we analyze things we look at the world through those lenses of economics and statistics may not actually lead to better decision making. So, I tried to bridge that gap. There's a whole tribe that does that, like behavioral economics, or cognitive psychology. So, I found my tribe through that doubt. And there were people where I was. I met Robin, Robin Hogarth, who is my coauthor in the book. And happy, happy meeting. We were working ever since.
Michael LeBlanc
Well it, you know, when I think of economics, I think of assumptions right. It’s in there's that old joke about assume a can opener, have you ever heard that economics joke? The Economist stuck on the island with an engineer and they're all the case washes, comes out of the water, and it's filled with canned goods, and but they don't have a can opener. So, they all look, how are we going to get it open? And the engineer, you know, develop some fulcrum stuff off the tree. And the economist just says, “well, why don't we just assume a can opener?”
Emre Soyer
Yeah, so my concern was, again, that's the kind of rationality, economic rationality and how much you assume people behave in a certain way and build systems on it's like economics management, even. I mean, none of the systems that we live in this management that didn't, you know, grow in trees. We built them, we build them using certain assumptions. So again, this, as you say, this decision making genre kind of challenges those assumptions, and also provides hopefully tools to make sure that people can see learn the right lessons from experience, for example, and make better decisions sustainably.
Michael LeBlanc
Well, certainly no one assumed, well some people I guess, assumed a global pandemic, but we'll get to that later on.
Let's talk about the book for a sec, The Myth of Experience: Why We Learn the Wrong Lessons and Ways to Correct Them. So, what compelled you to write it? I mean, you're obviously, you know, as with a Ph.D., you'd like to write or at least that's a part of how you, how you how you live. What whitespace, though, when you thought, okay, there's, we need to get this into print. And we, no one's talking about this, like, how did you approach the need to write this book?
Emre Soyer
Writing a book is hard in that you have to think about a lot about how you would write it. It was kind of clear to us why and what, but how was kind of difficult because in academic writing, you have a certain type of writing book, it has to be very different. Especially towards management towards social life.
But the primary motivate, motivation is about decisions again. I mean, decisions really, is something how many decisions did you make today? or yesterday? this week? I mean, crazy amounts of decisions every day, most of them automatic. And because we make decisions all day, every day, we don't usually think about what goes on behind the scenes. And there's a lot going on there. There are there are factors that have that come into our decision making there are quite automatic, we don't have to think about them, like experience, like intuition, like cooperation, like creativity, as I mentioned, in the beginning. These are not foolproof factors, though, we assume they will always help us, you know, we just learned from experience. I mean, think about how you learned to ride a bike, you just learned it. Also think about how you would unlearn it. Well, that's very hard, right? So, we have to be careful about how those factors come in, and how we may actually add a few gears for ourselves to improve those factors. So that was the main motivation.
And we dove deep into experience. One of those major factors that we don't have to think about, while we maybe better think about them, and determine when it teaches us the wrong lessons. When experiences is a trickster rather than a teacher quite unexpectedly. And to mitigate that. I mean, by all means we shouldn't ignore, can't ignore experience. But it is not as an amazing teacher, as we may think it is.
So, I think it was like it was Hippocrates, who called it like 2400 years ago. He said, “No, life is short. Art long. Opportunity fleeting. Experience deceptive, and, you know, decision difficult because of that”. So, he kind of warned us, we're going to make a lot of decisions. We're going to rely on our experience to improve our decisions. Whatever we're dealing with retail, but also in our social life, in medicine. But we may think that it is making us wiser while it is actually rendering us unwise. So, reinforcing mistakes, making us stuck with know how that is now irrelevant. Like we can't adapt to new situations maybe. So, experience is quite complicated. We better think about it more critically, in a timely fashion.
Michael LeBlanc
Well, I can't think of a better time to have a guide like this book. And I imagine you started writing it pre pandemic in the before time.
Emre Soyer
Oh my yes, unfortunately, this time, yes. Unfortunately, this time yes.
Michael LeBlanc
Well, and so, in that perspective that the timing couldn't be better. There's literally billions and billions and billions of dollars at stake as we try to understand the, you know, what we've learned and what we should learn from the COVID era and the experience. Would you agree, that in the core of human experience, that's a very broad question, but this is probably one of the biggest shocks to experience since the second, at least since the Second World War. I mean, it's a, it's a global phenomenon more or less. Everyone's experiencing it. And I've described this time as a circuit breaker of consumer behavior. And I've had other authors, Roger Martin described when I asked him about the same question. He said, “well, listen, you've got to now think of consumer behavior like a decaying asset”. What they used to do, and you just alluded to it, a lot of things we do are based on things unconscious and just experience right or wrong. Would you agree that this experience that we're going through and it is that kind of, you know, shock? Or am I just overthinking it?
Emre Soyer
A few points here to unpack. First of all, you're right that this is huge. This is global. I don't know how it compares to other huge global events. I was not alive. I didn't experience many of them. There was another pandemic in 1950s. There was a huge crisis, global crisis that affected many people in 2008. So, there are many different things that were their hurdles, but this is definitely a huge hurdle. And worse, it is still going on. Covid, it's not over yet, we're still riding the storm, we see some lights at the end of certain tunnels, but you know, we're not sure there's lots of going on that is uncertain. Definitely, it's a huge event, definitely it is going to kind of break certain things that were in terms of experience, many things will be obsolete. S we're gonna have to adapt to maybe a new normal, as they call it, or we're gonna have to also learn from this hopefully. So that next time around, we can cope with it much easier or hopefully prevent the next time around. It would be best if we had an experienced this. So, this is we've been writing the book while the experience occurred. We started it before.
And we actually wrote in one of our chapters, imagine a global pandemic a year before the pandemic. Not because we were imaginative. But we actually were reading about this thing, this is a possibility. But we were reading about possibility of many global catastrophes. So, the probability of one catastrophe or one rare event occurring may be small, but also the probability of no rare events occurring, and is also small in the next years in our lifetime, maybe. So, this was unfortunately now. It would be great if we had an experiences but now that we are experiencing it, we better learn the right lesson. So, I hope the book could actually open up many kinds of new ways of thinking about experience and how we can learn from rare events. We can learn from change and adapt quickly, maybe shedding our previous experience or on learning it's in a more controlled way. But definitely, this is an experience we should learn from. Unfortunately, this catastrophe is not an easy thing to learn from as well. So, it's what we call the wicked problem or wicked experience.
Michael LeBlanc
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Emre Soyer
And I can have you opened it up for you in a general sense?
Michael LeBlanc
Because you said that you say in the book, there's two types of learning environments. There's the wicked one, which feels like the one we're in now. And then there's the series of better experiences. So, so how do we do we learn differently in each of them? You know what, what's interesting is you're absolutely right. Like everyone says, the word unprecedented, you know, is the center square of the bingo card, right, that and pivot. But it's not exactly unprecedented, right? We had a SARS outbreak here, there was an outbreak in the UAE. As you said, there was something in the 50s, but they seem to be forgotten, like, like the global conscious seems to forget them. But now we're back in this longer, wicked one. So tell me about that.
Emre Soyer
Yeah. So let me get back to that point, right after this introduction of kind versus wicked, which will help people gain a kind of a perspective, like a pair of glasses that they can put on and see the world in a different way, hopefully. That's the main argument in the book, in that there are environments where we learn from experience quite automatically, we just absorb the information like data that is through our senses, and everything. And they can be characterized by kind versus wicked. So, Robin kind of came up with this characterization decades ago. And we are now applying this science to real world decisions in different contexts.
And a kind learning environment is where your experiences a friend, and it's characterized by a high-quality feedback, like you make decisions, and you get your feedback right away, immediately, accurately, abundantly. Great, right. And then also the, we're in an environment that doesn't change. You know, what you learn today from experience remains relevant also tomorrow. Excellent. An example is any kind of sports, but tennis, tennis is near my heart. So, if you go on a tennis court, you may not become a champion, it's very complex, but experience will always show you what is happening. And also, between today and tomorrow, you know, gravity won't stop operating, or the shape of the court and weight of the ball will not suddenly change. So, what you learn will stay relevant. Great. You step outside of the court, it gets wicked very quickly. I mean, look at your daily life, also, you know, a doctor's life or a manager's life or also the pandemic, the feedback we receive may be biased. It may be delayed. It may be fake. It may be, you know, nonexistent or probabilistic. Sometimes it comes, sometimes it doesn't. And we may not know which kind of feedback we're getting, and things may change very quickly. I mean, look at what COVID-19 did, and the rules may swiftly change.
Michael LeBlanc
And it's very much the case, you know, even with something as scientific so to speak as COVID. But there isn't a clear, one clear narrative around it even from the scientific community. So, it's a, it's wicked, right? Because it's, it's, and I guess the other thing is that, you know, Dr. Fauci from America said, you know, the really gnarly thing about this is that some people get really sick, and some people get hardly sick. So, it's hard to understand the lessons you're even learning from.
Emre Soyer
Oh yeah, there's so many problems with this. Yeah, there's so many parts of wickedness. I mean, what, for example, you employ a strategy, you see the results in two weeks, three weeks, so there's a delay. So that delay is very difficult. So, hospitalizations will come even maybe later. So, what you do today, how are we how are we going to evaluate that?
Also, you know, these rare events are terrible to learn from experience when they start, like they go zero for a very long time. And it's very, very important for us to learn from experience, and we generally kind of adapt to the recent experience. So, we optimize all our businesses, the way we do business with respect to last five years, maybe last three years, which is very healthy, to you know, adapt to new developments. But then something breaks that pattern, and it doesn't break immediately. It starts slow, like remember the first three months of 2020, we say this is a problem, yes, but this is not a big problem. And you know, we can deal with it with the systems in place. You know, people die with from other diseases, people are, you know, get accidents. But this is a nonlinear problem. So, the next day, it will be very difficult, it's going to start shooting up. And it did, and it's kind of a problem that doesn't kind of our experience doesn't relate with. It's similar to CO2 emissions. It's similar to antibiotics growth, for example. All those things may cause a problem in the future. We don't experience it now, but they're brewing behind the scenes slowly and in a nonlinear way. So, we have to go beyond our experience to maybe challenge the way we do business, the way we optimize our behavior.
Michael LeBlanc
You speak of traps in the book and this is one of the kinds of things I like the most about it is the traps of learnings from failures or successes. So, as you said earlier, is making mistakes, it's often you know, you know, you will learn from making mistakes. Is that a trap? Or is there some truth to it? And where do you sit in that?
Emre Soyer
This is a deep question because we like learning from successes. For example, we like emulating successes. We don't necessarily like learning from mistakes, failures. But we do that anyway. We argue that both of those methods like learning from successes and learning from mistakes and failures, both of those may have certain traps, quite elusive traps.
I can give you an example from the mistakes side. Let's say you're learning from your mistakes, from your failures. And what companies and managers usually do they dive deep and try to find root causes of their failures. They find some common elements across many failures. And then they try to eliminate them. This is quite costly, but supposedly beneficial. We would argue that these are traps as you call them. For example, what if those root causes that you found by predominantly focusing on failures, what if they're also common in successes? Then you eliminated something that might not have made a difference at all, between what success and failure. So, the trick is to find the difference? The causal difference between success and failure. If you look for only failures, you will miss that. Another trap is what if success, it had something kind of small that didn't, failures didn't have. You missed that completely, because you're only predominantly looking at failures. And more importantly, there's a chapter on this, unfortunately, in the book, once again, is that many people miss success, like failures. When they look at failures, predominantly, again, they miss successes, but behind them, there are failures. So, there are failures that are masquerading as successes. So, they have either bad processes, they got lucky, or certain bad processes that actually are kind of deceptive. They can lead to scandals. Like, look at the emission scandal. Look at Madoff. Look at Enron. Even 2008 crisis, where because we were obsessed with what was going wrong, maybe, because we, our job is to kind of make them better. But there were many successful outcomes behind which there were something brewing. And we didn't notice that until it was too late. So,
Michael LeBlanc
It's such a great, it's such an intriguing observation. You know, in my career as a retailer, you would often have, you know, post-mortems, as we would call them. And often the post-mortems were around things that didn't work the way you thought they would be. So, in other words, your post-mortem time is mostly spent on failures and the successes were like, “That was great. Let's do that again. Let's move on”.
Emre Soyer
Yea, so
Michael LeBlanc
You know what I mean, you gathered the team together. What went wrong? Let's figure it out. And but you know, you might go out for a drink to celebrate a success, but you wouldn't have the same kind of post-mortem about, wow, we really knock the cover off the ball on that. How did we do that? And that's such an intriguing idea.
Emre Soyer
Yean, and we would agree with that approach. We would also disagree with the opposite. Don't get me wrong, I mean, don't go around and benchmarking successes, which we like. I mean, we wrote a piece on that, like, everybody's obsessed about these lists of things successful people do before breakfast, and lunch. And that's kind of nice to motivate people. But many not so successful people who didn't make into the list, maybe are also doing those things. In that, those advice may not be causing the difference. Also, these kind of analysis tend to take success definition from outside, which is quite bad practice. Because then even if you reach success, you may have certain tradeoffs that lead you there. And you may actually regret that. You may not like that. So, we should be defining our own success and failure and sampling both of them to try to gauge what causes the difference. And maybe even track that difference across time. Because you know, technology changes, and that difference between success and failure, however you define it may also evolve in time.
Michael LeBlanc
Well, it's the bal, it sounds like it's the balance between like put as much effort and understanding the successes as the failure. Some balance between the two, right?
Emre Soyer
I would put them both, on the both at the same time. And at the same place. Like it's kind of an akin to scientific method. If you think about it, like sample success and failure, depending on your definitions, and then try to go into the difference. You will have a much better understanding on the causality, on uncertainty, on potential deceptions that lead to one or the other. In this way, if you put them at the same time, if you hold in one hand one and the other one and the other one, like representative samples of each.
Michael LeBlanc
Right, right. And last couple of questions for you, it's a fascinating conversation. And, and again, we're talking about the work around the book, The Myth of Experience. You know, we're not out of this thing yet. How do we make sure now think and think about it both as citizens and as retailers, you know, this the retail podcast and industry, how do we set ourselves up for success, so to speak, in learning the right lessons? Which, what's your advice to both us as both retailers and citizens?
Emre Soyer
I mean, the things that I talked about, like rare events considered going beyond experience and also look at success and failure would hold. Let me add something beyond that, that we may need to do better. One thing that we could look deeper into are preventions, and near misses. So, near misses again are, you know, good outcomes, must like bad outcomes masquerading as good ones, that are failures. It's like things that like, when we take a lot of risk, when we make a mistake, sometimes they lead to a good outcome. And usually in management in retailers in all sorts of even kind of structures that we manage, usually that gets swept under the rug, because the incentive schemes are kind of there to see you know, I will be blamed for this, so, nothing bad happens let me not report this. So, we should maybe look into these near misses, not events, interest, and that will lead us to better prevention actually.
So, preventions are cursed by experience as well, because they are not experienced. So, if you prevent a problem, nobody experiences it. So, we generally then underestimate the problem because it was prevented. So, we may also begin to kind of look at the people who prevented problems. Remember them more and incentivize prevention within the workplace. Because they're kind of tragically forgotten. These are the problem solvers. Problem Solving is great, I have nothing against it. But problem prevention is as great, but it gets kind of gets hidden. So, one thing we could learn from COVID, is that in that preventive measures may seem as a loss of time and effort, sometimes. But over the long haul, we need that access, we need that access thinking about, you know, nonlinear growing things and how to prevent them. Nonlinear growing things and how to invest in them so that they are towards the positive rather than the negative.
Michael LeBlanc
Alright, last question, advice to listeners. There are lots of folks who listen to the podcast that manage teams, small teams, big teams, global teams, local teams. What's your advice to the Managers and Executives on how to, and how to direct or inform, or help their teams to look at the right problems and get the valuable solutions? Like from the ground up, what's your what's your advice on that?
Emre Soyer
So, let me also look at this from the lens of wicked versus kind experience, that's my, that's my main job here. There are many advice that one can give, but my advice would be, diversified your teams with their experience. And then leave them alone a little bit. In that, in my practice, I do something called the Senate of Managers. And this is the mid-managers. They're stuck. Kind of in a spin, in a very healthy place in the company. They know the company inside out. But they're also stuck in that they want to go move up in the ladder, and they don't have much time.
So, I urge executives to give small pockets of time and energy for them to meet. Like a handful of them. And then talk to each other about their problems. And each of them can bring their own insights to each other’s problem. And don't interfere with that process. If you go into the room, as they discuss, and say anything as a as a leader, for example, they will not speak their mind anymore. Also, even if you roll your eyes, that's enough, you don't have to actually speak. So, I would leave them alone, let them you know, think about their, each other's problems. Bring each other's experience into the mix and report back to you about certain threats, certain opportunities. And you will see lots of things that may be missing from your view from up high in the mountain but might be kind of lurking in the processes that you're concerned with inside the machine that you're managing.
Michael LeBlanc
And what I love about that approach, and you make this point in the book, is that a lot of people, let's call them mid-managers are really busy. And the fear behind it is, you know, if I have a great idea, somebody's gonna say, well, Mike, that's a great idea, go do that. And in another words, well, geez, that's more work that I you know, that I'm taking on. Where what you're recommending is this, this Senate is, bring them together, have ideas come out, and then let the managers decide, the senior managers decide how to allocate the work and in some way that it doesn't get tattooed, so to speak, to the person who came up with a great idea. But somehow, you've got to reward them anyway. It's it's complex, but it's a wonderful idea.
Emre Soyer
Yeah, it is kind of a distributing responsibility of ideas. But also, it packs a punch in that like a negotiation power. Like they can also help the management understand that some problems are really important in a timely way.
And this also cuts through that politics of the day-to-day. I mean, it's quite mind-numbing, the politics of how to talk, what to think and what they will say. So, it cuts through that a bit. And lets them freely flow ideas and build on each other's problems and experiences. Of course, it needs to be mitigated a bit, but then once it settles, it can be quite sustainable. And it only takes maybe a few hours a month, maybe like three, four hours a month. So, it is an access thing, but we need to kind of keep these pockets keep these extra things for our long-term resilience against crises like this, or a local crisis even.
Michael LeBlanc
right. Well, listen, it's a great way to wrap up our conversation. Again, the book is The Myth of Experience.
And Emre, thank you so much for joining me on The Voice of Retail. It was a great discussion and thank you so much for taking the time to speak with me.
Emre Soyer
Thank you for having me. Delighted.
Michael LeBlanc
Thanks for tuning into today's episode of The Voice of Retail. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast so you don't miss out on the latest episodes, industry news, and insights. If you enjoyed this episode, please consider leaving a rating and review, as it really helps us grow so that we continue to get amazing guests onto the show. I'm your host, Michael LeBlanc, President of M.E. LeBlanc Company Inc. And if you're looking for more content or want to chat, follow me on LinkedIn. Visit my website at meleblanc.co. Until next time, stay safe and have a great week.