In this episode, I welcome back to the podcast Michele Sexsmith, Senior Vice President and Practice Leader, Retail, Real Estate and Entertainment Sectors, Environics Analytics. We catch up after a tumultuous year in retail that has shaken up where and how consumers shop, and how retailers see their future and how through updated segmentation, mobile data and geo-fencing, Michele is helping retailers understand the new competitive realities of the COVID era. Next, we talk about their all-new VaccineInsights Data, which overlays attitudes around the vaccines on top of their consumer and geographic segmentation better to understand hesitancy and possible trouble spots and solutions.
Welcome to the The Voice of Retail , I’m your host Michael LeBlanc, and this podcast is brought to you in conjunction with Retail Council of Canada.
In this episode, I welcome back to the podcast Michele Sexsmith, Senior Vice President and Practice Leader, Retail, Real Estate and Entertainment Sectors, Environics Analytics. We catch up after a tumultuous year in retail that has shaken up where and how consumers shop, and how retailers see their future and how through updated segmentation, mobile data and geo-fencing, Michele is helping retailers understand the new competitive realities of the COVID era. Next, we talk about their all-new VaccineInsights Data, which overlays attitudes around the vaccines on top of their consumer and geographic segmentation better to understand hesitancy and possible trouble spots and solutions.
Thanks for tuning into today’s episode of The Voice of Retail. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast so you don’t miss out on the latest episodes, industry news, and insights. If you enjoyed this episode please consider leaving a rating and review, as it really helps us grow so that we can continue getting amazing guests on the show.
I’m your host Michael LeBlanc, President of M.E. LeBlanc & Company, and if you’re looking for more content, or want to chat follow me on LinkedIn, or visit my website meleblanc.co!
Until next time, stay safe and have a great week!
Michael LeBlanc
Welcome to The Voice of Retail. I'm your host Michael LeBlanc. This podcast is brought to you in conjunction with Retail Council of Canada. In this episode, I welcome back to the podcast Michele Sexsmith, Senior Vice President and Practice Leader, Retail, Real Estate and Entertainment Sectors, Environics Analytics. We catch up after a tumultuous year in retail that has shaken up where and how consumers shop, and how retailers see their future and how through updated segmentation, mobile data and geo fencing, Michele is helping retailers understand the new competitive realities of the COVID era. Next, we talk about their all new VaccineInsights Data, which overlays attitudes around vaccines on top of their consumer and geographic segmentation, better to understand the hesitancy and possible trouble spots and solutions.
Michele Sexsmith
We do see that the, the regional malls are starting to trend up in some areas. We're seeing the power centers starting to trend up. As we see the restriction start to ease, we can see certain areas of the country where that behavior is starting to be displayed.
Michael LeBlanc
Let's listen in now.
Michelle, welcome to The Voice of Retail podcast. How are you doing?
Michele Sexsmith
I'm doing well, Michael, how are you?
Michael LeBlanc
It's so great for you to join me again, and we'll do some chitting and chatting. And a little bit has happened since the last time we spoke. So it is again, it's a great opportunity to catch up. And, for the folks who perhaps didn't hear any of our previous interviews, why don't we start the beginning, tell us a bit about yourself and your role at Environics Analytics, and then we'll talk about Environics Analytics and, and that. But let's start with a little bit about you and what you do.
I remember our last conversation about trying to understand changing consumer patterns, but we've never quite seen anything like this. And you've been in this business, you know, like myself, a long time. I mean, it's, it's hard to imagine the scale of the changes. But at the same time, I think some of these changes may be more temporary than permanent, I really want to get into that with you, because I think through your insights and data, you can help us all understand or at least begin to understand movement patterns and, and what may or may not be static. But you know, as I said, a lot has happened.
Michele Sexsmith
Okay, well, in terms, it's Michele Sexsmith, I'm Senior Vice President and Practice Leader for our Retail and Real Estate Practice at Environics Analytics. For those of you that aren't familiar with the company, we provide a lot of data to help the industry with data driven decision making. Whether that's around demographics, and lifestyles of consumers, or whether that's around their digital behaviors to help them to acquire more customers. So, we help the whole retail industry with site location, where should bricks and mortar stores be located, to help with understanding eCommerce customers and what that means for marketing, to helping with understanding changing consumer behaviors as they evolve on a continuing basis, which seems to be the world we're living in.
Michael LeBlanc
So, what have you observed? Just let me start at a high level. I mean, you as I said, you've been in the retail industry, or partner for retail, for, for many, many years, what have you just observing around consumer behavior and, and in the COVID era? And it's your opinion, now, we're not into data yet, but we'll get there, what's your opinion around, you know, what, what do you think is changed? And what do you think might be changed for the foreseeable future?
Michele Sexsmith
Well, we've certainly seen that consumer patterns with so many people working from home, it continues to be about a third of the population. So, we've been tracking that behavior to get an idea of where people are shopping, to understand what banners they're going to, to understand how their expenditures are changing throughout this entire timeframe. So, with our small neighborhood level, demographics, lifestyle expenditures, we've been able to see all of those patterns evolve over time.
Early in the pandemic, we saw that there were smaller trade areas, consumers were clearly much more focused on getting into a retail location doing a destination shop if they possibly could, and then getting right back home. And, as restrictions have gone through different easing, we've seen that opportunity, we can see a lot of pent-up demand, where consumers want to be able to get out and shop for a wide range of goods and services. And when that's allowed, we can see that they certainly want to be able to shop the way they used to.
And obviously with the more recent restrictions, we see that you know coming back a bit and going back to that destination shop. But, it's certainly been a changing landscape. There's been a lot of growth obviously in eCommerce but at the same time I think consumers are really starting to understand that there's certain categories of goods, they're happy to shop in that eCommerce world. And there's other cases where they'd much prefer to be back in the stores and be able to touch and feel merchandise and make decisions and understand quality and all that full store experience is something that they're missing.
Michael LeBlanc
And, and when you look at customer data, you also look at a full spectrum. So, for example, there's been a tremendous shift of food consumption out of restaurants, into grocery. So, you would be able to capture that in your, in your, in your data, right, that broader view. I'm curious, if you refresh your segmentation model PRIZM, I think, I think you refresh it almost every year? And, do you see this as a major refresh this year in behavior? I guess I'm still kind of trying to pull on that thread of, of is the behaviors or other are the behaviors enough sustainably enough, as in gonna sustain behavior that you might adapt the PRIZM model? Or are those kind of fixed on, on lifestyle and life stage more than what they're, what they're doing on a day-to-day level?
Michele Sexsmith
Well, we certainly look at the changes in the PRIZM structure overall. So, there's a lot of changes that go on in households. And these are, these take time, to be able to, to evolve over a period of time. So, for instance, the, that the condo living, young households within Toronto, or any major market, really, we've seen that growth, we continue to see that growth going forward. We know that there's a pattern where when, you know, consumers try to, or when families expand and think about the, you know, children within the household and the needs that way, we do see a movement into more suburban types of markets. And that's an ongoing change. I think COVID has sped that up to some degree. We certainly see a little bit more migration to more, more (inaudible) housing. We can see that in the real estate housing, increases in home values, and the demand across the market. But in general, these are, they're still within the normal range. I mean, there's, you know, some increase in those movement patterns, but not wholesale changes. These are big decisions for consumers to make, it takes time. Very often, there's two income households. And so, it's trying to figure out what's the right move for a particular household, a particular family structure. And so, it does take time to, for those changes to take place.
Having said that, we are going to be releasing later this month, The PRIZM 2021 estimates for every neighborhood across the country, and all of that's tied to the nearly million residential postal codes, so that anybody can see what's the impact in their local market. How has that local trading area changed? And what does that mean for things like merchandise mix? And that the different lifestyle types and the expenditures that they represent, to help to assess that market potential at the store level?
Michael LeBlanc
I guess the first step in your journey of looking at those is the data, probably the first and first, do you know 99. But is there attitudinal shifts that also could take place? I mean, that this sudden move from, I'm going to work at home, so I want different things because my life now is different. And, do you perceive perhaps down the road that there could be attitudinal shifts around, you know, downtown's, around going into cities versus a more positive vibe around where they live in suburbs, for example? I'm just kind of making that up as an example. But, is that kind of captured in how you think about your segmentation as well as just the data that informs it?
Michele Sexsmith
Well, I think it's the proportion of each lifestyle type within each market that does change. So, the, you know, Latte Life is an example of that, you know, downtown type of young single or couple that like that downtown verve. You know, they like to be able to go for a walk, have their coffee,
Michael LeBlanc
Yup, love that name by the way.
Michele Sexsmith
Have that everything in the downtown core. And so, that certainly, that interest is still there within the market. And some of those lifestyle types are, you know, very happy to shop as soon as restrictions lift. But, we also know that there's other consumers that are thinking, you know, what, maybe it's time for that, you know, major change that we were thinking about anyway, and maybe have sped up some of that decision making to think about their housing, and where they want to move to. And so, that's captured in that new release so that everyone can see where, where they're moving and how the mix has changed at any specific location.
Sorry, some of the things we've seen in terms of general expenditure change, or just demand on the market, I think everyone is starting to understand things like home improvement, you know, someone may decide they're going to stay in their household, wherever that may be, an urban location, a suburban location, but they're realizing that their physical space isn't really optimal for spending so much time at home. And so, many consumers are thinking about how do they make that home, that place of comfort, to that place where they've got room for all of the activities, whether it's, you know, a proper work from home space, or whether it's separate areas for the kids to be able to play to, you know, being able to, you know, undertake some of that being fitness and sort of have a designated area for that. So, there's been a lot of focus on making those home improvements that really make home the place that they want to be able to stay, and where they're happy with it, that full framework, and it meets all of the needs of everyone within the household.
Michael LeBlanc
Well, you've talked a couple of times about data, let's dig in. So, talk about the tools that you have to leverage to help retailers understand. I mean, I think you, you leverage a lot of mobile data. So, let's, let's talk about that. What are, you know, there are complexities to understanding mobile search, data sources, and what are you enabled? Or what are you able to tell retailers about how, you know, this work from home is changing brand preference or store preference, because we know there's a lot of changes happening and how people make decisions. Not just where they work, of course, if they're working at home, but also where they shop, and perhaps who they shop from? Talk about that for a bit?
Michele Sexsmith
Yeah, I'd be happy to. So, the mobile movement data, this is based on permission based mobile movement patterns. And, we've been working with this type of data for several years to understand who's shopping at different locations. And so, this allows us to identify where consumers are in terms of you know, do they have a common daytime location? So, that we can track which ones are working, you know, in their traditional workplace versus those that are working from home. And, we know the common evening location for those consumers so that we can also have an idea of the demographics of the neighborhoods, to understand their media preferences to understand the types of expenditures that they make, in that full range of retail, whether it's home improvement, or groceries or home furnishings, any of those elements are part of the, the data that we have, that can be tied into to that consumer type. So that helps us to understand how those patterns are changing.
So, since the data is refreshed in a near real time way. It allows us to see, you know what this neighborhood is, you know, shopping in our, on a regular basis, whereas this other neighborhood, because of the pandemic changes, is, is more locked at home and staying at home and doing less shopping. So, we can see this information basically week-by-week, month-by-month and it has been really a key element to understand consumer behaviors and how they're responding at different stages, overall.
So, every, anytime restrictions are lifted, when it's been safe to do so, we've been able to see, okay, these are where consumers now are changing their patterns, instead of just shopping maybe in grocery, now we're starting to see them to shop at power centers or other types of retail locations. And, we can really see how, how that uptick is, is starting to happen in certain areas.
And, in because, in part of the work that we've done with that mobile movement data is to actually geo-fence all of the retail locations across the entire country. So, whether it's a shopping center, whether it's a strip plaza, whether it's an individual retailer, it's possible to use the physical four walls of that shopping node. And, to understand then, how, how large is that trade area for that retail node, to be able to see you the age distribution, the income levels, the family structure of the consumer types that are traveling to that retail node. And, to understand, is the shopping, is the trader itself, is it changing? Is it smaller? Is it getting larger? Or does it consist of a different consumer type that may be what it did two years ago?
Michael LeBlanc
So, it's almost like someone has kind of scrambled up the chessboard halfway through the game. I mean, you've got not only, particularly Ontario, Quebec, some places more than others, but you've got more folks working at home. I mean, right now we're talking in April and we're to stay at home orders. So, you know, you've a lot of people in the suburbs. Give me an example of what a retailer might be able to query? You know, I guess they would be curious, let's say you're a shopper of their brand and you typically bought, and this is not a typical rate, you typically bought close to where you worked. Maybe you lived in the suburbs worked downtown. I guess they're trying, would try to figure out if there's migration, are they just coming back to you in the suburbs? Or are they now you know, trying other brands? Are you able to detect kind of like models in your competition and kind of build, build against that?
Michele Sexsmith
It's certainly possible to look at things like, say, loyalists versus churners in the marketplace. So, because of the kind of hashed IDs that we work with, for privacy compliance, we can still get a sense that there's a certain consumer types that maybe is shopping competitor's locations within the same category. So, you know, within say, home improvement, which banners are they going to? Is it the same banner that they were going to a year ago? Or, is it the lifestyle type of a banner that is now shifting its behavior and going to a competitor? Or is it a lifestyle types that we don't even see within that sector anymore, which probably indicates that they're doing more in eCommerce.
So, it's possible to see, you know, which consumers are out there shopping, what their types are like. Whether it's consistent year-over-year. And to be able to see if there's cross shopping behavior that's going on, where we can see that this consumer type is going from this store to another store within that same category. And, it represents possibly an at risk type of consumer type for that, for that specific banner.
So, that gives the retailer that ability to understand who their best shoppers are, those consumer types that are at risk of possibly going to the competition. And, then they can start to tie in other data around the media preferences of those consumers, or their attitudes and mindset to understand how they should communicate differentially to each of those consumer types. So, loyalists, they may have very one set of messages that they can deploy through digital, or traditional media. And those consumers that are at risk, they might want to pursue a very different messaging strategy may be much more focused on price, if that's the key motivator for that cross-shopping behavior. Or it could even be, you know, just understanding or communicating that range of merchandise, if that's the, the characteristics of that consumer. And that's the driver for why they're shopping within that competitive landscape.
So, this can be done at a store-by-store level, or it can be done across the entire banner, since all of those banners are geo fenced, and you can look at the trends on a much broader basis across a market, across a province, or even across the entire country to see what the trends are, and how that shopper profile is changing over time.
Michael LeBlanc
Do you think or have you seen in the data? You know, I think about you know, suburban malls, you know, your, your regional malls, and I think, with so many people working from home, and I think that might persist to some degree post COVID. This could be a second life for, for the small malls. Do you see anything the data that would point you in that direction?
Michele Sexsmith
We do see that the, the regional malls are starting to trend up. In some areas, we're seeing power centers starting to trend up. Again, this is so dependent on restrictions at this stage. But, as we see the restrictions start to ease we can see certain areas of the country where that behavior is starting to be displayed. So for instance, the Atlanta region, they've had fewer cases traditionally, and we can see that there's been a higher level of shopping and we can actually identify which types of centers are increasing in that activity. And, so that provides some really great indicators to understand the trends in a market that's had more flexibility. And that can help us to better anticipate what's going to happen as you know, restrictions start to ease hopefully soon, in places like Ontario and other areas across the country.
Michael LeBlanc
Well, it's almost like you've got a giant control group within Canada right with the Atlantic bubble. It's, it must be so interesting for you as a data, as a person so steeped in data.
Let's say, last kind of, a couple of questions you, you know, obviously, you talked about our lives today, and one of the things that, that takes up a fair bit of thought for us personally, is the vaccine and as retailers think about getting back to normal and the need for the vaccine. And we also turn our minds to vaccine hesitancy. We see in the United States, for example, that retailers are offering incentives to their employees like financial incentives to get the vaccine. And you've, you're just starting to do some work on that, you've got some what I think it's called VaccineInsights, tell me a little bit about your, what you're learning and, and what we can understand from that data.
Michele Sexsmith
We've just released that information so, last week. It is based on a survey that was fielded in the middle of March, to identify its consumer attitudes around getting the vaccine, to be able to classify those into those that are that do want to get it, versus those that are sitting on the fence a bit more hesitant, versus those that really do not intend to get the vaccine for a variety of reasons. And so, we're working with two different data partners on this.
And, one of them really looks at the cognitive factors around that vaccine hesitancy so that they've seen correlations then between those that are hesitant with maybe lack of scientific knowledge or belief in conspiracy theories. And so, that ties into understanding those, those PRIZM types, because we've tied that serving information back to that framework to understand the 67 lifestyle types. And so, now we know which ones really are hesitant, which ones are happy to get on board and get the vaccine as quickly as possible as, because they see that as the, the means that we all get out of this faster and get back to a sort of more normal life.
Michael LeBlanc
I was going to say, whatever the new normal looks like, yeah.
Michele Sexsmith
Yes, I guess we're all anxious to see what the new normal looks like. And I imagine we're gonna go through a few versions of that before we truly settle in. But, some of the things that we found fascinating, as we've looked at this data is that it's not as straightforward as, as you might hope for, I guess. You know, in urban areas, we can see there's some hesitancy in lower income or lower education, types of Canadians. So, you know, that relates to looking at where are those pockets, and how do we get better communication going on in those pockets to understand the safety, or the other elements that they're concerned about with the vaccine.
And we even find some variability in surprising ways. One of them that we've looked at is turbo burbs is an example of quite affluent suburban population, these are, you know, young families. But in this particular case, this specific lifestyle has a concern, or has a strong belief in conspiracy theories. So they're, they tend to be more influenced, I guess, by a segment of the population in, in, in those, those theories are bound to you know, does the vaccine cause autism? Are there other kinds of, is this a big pharma play? And it's really about the money. Those kinds of elements. And so, appeasing their concerns around this, we need to be respectful of their personal beliefs around this, but we can start to message to them differently, in order to help them to get confidence in the vaccine, and what is going to mean for their families, what is going to mean for society overall.
And in this particular case, this is a segment that really wants personal control in rejects authority, so just telling them just do it, because this is what should happen, is just not going to work. It does take a very different type of message, to help them to see that this has a personal benefit for them. And, and to consider that whole family structure. So, you know, maybe those personal stories of people that have had COVID can be a means to be able to take at a higher comfort level and to understand the impacts of the decisions and help them to you know, move into more willing consideration.
Michael LeBlanc
So, I guess like, like many things, it isn't unveal, or reveal, that it's not just about geography, it's also about life stage and that and that's where you see that segmentation right. To understand where you operate and the degree of something like vaccine hesitancy doesn't necessarily align to geography, but aligns more to attitudinal stuff. I mean, that's interesting, some interesting results around where it fits in your segment. Some things I expected to hear and other things I didn't expect to hear. So that's, that's really interesting. Listen, as always really interesting to hear about the possibilities, the tools you offer for retailers and your insights, where can we go to learn more or get in touch?
Michele Sexsmith
I'd certainly be happy to talk further. My direct line is 416-969-2760. There's a lot of information on our website, www.environicsanalytics.com. So there's information on webinars, on changing demographic trends, information on vaccine insights, the webinar that's later today. All of our webinars are available through our website, under the 'Webinars Resources' categories. S, it's a great tool to help with understanding what's changing, what's evolving, and the range of data that can help with the key decisions that all retailers need to make and in the broader industry at large as we work across a very broad range of industry sectors.
Michael LeBlanc
Well, Michele, it's always interesting to have you on board. And thanks again for taking the time to speak with me. I wish you continued success and continued, it must be a very interesting time for you, watching the data move the way it does, it's not like it's little increments, man, it is moving around. So, I'm sure you've got a lot of work ahead of you, you and the team to figure this out and help retailers understand it. But, once again, thanks so much for joining me on The Voice of Retail podcast.
Michele Sexsmith
Thanks, Michael. happy to help.
Michael LeBlanc
Thanks for tuning into today's episode of The Voice of Retail. Be sure and follow the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you enjoy podcasts so you don't miss out on the latest episodes, industry news and insights. If you enjoyed this episode, please consider leaving a rating review because it really helps us grow so that we continue to get amazing guests onto the show. I'm your host Michael LeBlanc, President of M.E. LeBlanc Company Inc. And if you're looking for more content, or want to chat, follow me on LinkedIn or visit my we